Minnesota Wild at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Ducks- Robby FabbriGoals1
- Radko GudasAssists1
- Robby FabbriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:47Mason McTavish Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (1), Urho Vaakanainen (1)5–2
- P317:44Kirill Kaprizov Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Marco Rossi (9), Brock Faber (7)5–1
- P314:20Marco Rossi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (18)4–1
- P32:16Robby Fabbri Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none3–1
- P112:32Kirill Kaprizov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (3), Mats Zuccarello (7)3–0
- P19:11Marcus Foligno Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (6), Brock Faber (6)2–0
- P17:31Jake Middleton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:31Jake Middleton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (3)MIN 1 – 0 ANA · MIN 64% → 77% +13MIN 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P19:11Marcus Foligno Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (6), Brock Faber (6)MIN 2 – 0 ANA · MIN 77% → 87% +10MIN 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P112:32Kirill Kaprizov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (3), Mats Zuccarello (7)MIN 3 – 0 ANA · MIN 88% → 94% +6MIN 88% → 94%+6 pts
- P32:16Robby Fabbri Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneMIN 3 – 1 ANA · ANA 1% → 6% +5ANA 1% → 6%+5 pts
- P314:20Marco Rossi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (18)MIN 4 – 1 ANA · MIN >99% → >99% +1MIN >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 65%
- ML MIN -210 / ANA +175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.6%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -186
- ANA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.2 – 2.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +5 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +25 Elo | MIN 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.132nd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.08th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.927th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 43.5%31st of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 91.9%4th of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–2 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–5 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 3–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.