Minnesota Wild at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Frederick GaudreauGoals2
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Frederick GaudreauPoints3
Penguins- Valtteri PuustinenGoals1
- Matt GrzelcykAssists1
- Valtteri PuustinenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:41Kirill Kaprizov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (1), Jake Middleton (5)5–3
- P33:36Rickard Rakell Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (5), Sidney Crosby (9)4–3
- P219:23Mats Zuccarello Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (13), Marco Rossi (5)4–2
- P21:38Frederick Gaudreau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (12), Brock Faber (4)3–2
- P117:58Frederick Gaudreau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P117:03Jakub Lauko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (2)1–2
- P115:31Rickard Rakell Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (2), Sidney Crosby (8)0–2
- P111:36Valtteri Puustinen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (5), Sidney Crosby (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:36Valtteri Puustinen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (5), Sidney Crosby (7)MIN 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 48% → 64% +16PIT 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P117:58Frederick Gaudreau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 2 – 2 PIT · MIN 35% → 52% +17MIN 35% → 52%+17 pts
- P21:38Frederick Gaudreau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (12), Brock Faber (4)MIN 3 – 2 PIT · MIN 52% → 69% +17MIN 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P219:23Mats Zuccarello Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (13), Marco Rossi (5)MIN 4 – 2 PIT · MIN 74% → 90% +16MIN 74% → 90%+16 pts
- P33:36Rickard Rakell Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (5), Sidney Crosby (9)MIN 4 – 3 PIT · PIT 8% → 23% +16PIT 8% → 23%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML MIN -120 / PIT +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −9 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · PIT: Joel Blomqvist: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +21 Elo | PIT 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 4.330th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −1.329th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.8% | Shot share | 47.3%26th of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 88.5%25th of 32 |
| 7th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–3 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.