Pittsburgh Penguins at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints3
Canucks- Kiefer SherwoodGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists1
- Kiefer SherwoodPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:22Evgeni Malkin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Rickard Rakell (2), Matt Grzelcyk (4)3–4
- P29:58Arshdeep Bains Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (1)2–4
- P25:11J.T. Miller Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Brock Boeser (3)2–3
- P24:49Kiefer Sherwood Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (3), Vincent Desharnais (1)2–2
- P24:06Elias Pettersson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (4), Tyler Myers (2)2–1
- P21:56Bryan Rust Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (1), Evgeni Malkin (11)2–0
- P17:48Anthony Beauvillier Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (4), Evgeni Malkin (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:48Anthony Beauvillier Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (4), Evgeni Malkin (10)PIT 1 – 0 VAN · PIT 36% → 51% +15PIT 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P21:56Bryan Rust Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (1), Evgeni Malkin (11)PIT 2 – 0 VAN · PIT 56% → 73% +17PIT 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P24:06Elias Pettersson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (4), Tyler Myers (2)PIT 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 26% → 43% +17VAN 26% → 43%+17 pts
- P24:49Kiefer Sherwood Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (3), Vincent Desharnais (1)PIT 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 43% → 62% +19VAN 43% → 62%+19 pts
- P25:11J.T. Miller Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Brock Boeser (3)PIT 2 – 3 VAN · VAN 62% → 78% +16VAN 62% → 78%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 65%
- ML PIT +175 / VAN -210
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- VAN: Elo 65.9%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- VAN -186
- PIT +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 3.7 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +4 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +115 Elo | VAN 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 67.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.3 | Goals allowed | 3.08th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 50.0%17th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 90.6%10th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 0–231st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–6 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.