Chicago Blackhawks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists3
- Connor BedardPoints3
Ducks- Brock McGinnGoals1
- Ross JohnstonAssists1
- Brock McGinnPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:56Mason McTavish Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (4), Ryan Strome (3)4–2
- P317:43Ryan Donato Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Connor Bedard (9), Philipp Kurashev (1)4–1
- P310:16Brock McGinn Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (1)3–1
- P218:05Seth Jones Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (8), Lukas Reichel (5)3–0
- P116:44Teuvo Teravainen Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (4), Alex Vlasic (7)2–0
- P112:57Isaak Phillips Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (7), Taylor Hall (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:57Isaak Phillips Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (7), Taylor Hall (3)CHI 1 – 0 ANA · CHI 46% → 62% +16CHI 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P116:44Teuvo Teravainen Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (4), Alex Vlasic (7)CHI 2 – 0 ANA · CHI 63% → 78% +15CHI 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P218:05Seth Jones Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (8), Lukas Reichel (5)CHI 3 – 0 ANA · CHI 87% → 96% +9CHI 87% → 96%+9 pts
- P310:16Brock McGinn Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (1)CHI 3 – 1 ANA · ANA <1% → 4% +3ANA <1% → 4%+3 pts
- P317:43Ryan Donato Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Connor Bedard (9), Philipp Kurashev (1)CHI 4 – 1 ANA · CHI >99% → >99% +0CHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 54%
- ML CHI +110 / ANA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.8 pts
- ANA: Elo 65.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ANA -119
- CHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.1 – 3.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +9 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +108 Elo | ANA 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.232nd of 32 |
| 19th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.519th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 42.5%31st of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 93.0%2nd of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–1 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.