Anaheim Ducks at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Trevor ZegrasAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Penguins- Matt GrzelcykAssists1
- Matt GrzelcykPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:35Sidney Crosby Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (4)1–2
- P31:47Sidney Crosby Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (6), Erik Karlsson (6)1–1
- P115:50Alex Killorn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (2), Cutter Gauthier (4)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:50Alex Killorn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (2), Cutter Gauthier (4)ANA 1 – 0 PIT · ANA 39% → 56% +17ANA 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P31:47Sidney Crosby Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (6), Erik Karlsson (6)ANA 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 31% → 57% +26PIT 31% → 57%+26 pts
- OT2:35Sidney Crosby Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (4)ANA 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 53% → 97% +44PIT 53% → 97%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 62%
- ML ANA +155 / PIT -185
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 59.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -166
- ANA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −6 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +67 Elo | PIT 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 64.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 4.432nd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.431st of 32 |
| 31st of 3243.6% | Shot share | 46.8%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3292.6% | Save percentage | 88.6%22nd of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–3 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.