Chicago Blackhawks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals1
- Lukas ReichelAssists1
- Nick FolignoPoints1
Kings- Alex LaferriereGoals2
- Kevin FialaAssists2
- Alex LaferrierePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Ryan Donato Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Adrian Kempe Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Teuvo Teravainen Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Connor Bedard Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Trevor Moore Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- P319:29Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Donato (2), Seth Jones (7)3–3
- P311:48Phillip Danault Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Kevin Fiala (5), Trevor Moore (3)2–3
- P35:34Craig Smith Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (4), Alex Vlasic (6)2–2
- P33:26Nick Foligno Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nolan Allan (3)1–2
- P218:37Alex Laferriere Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (4), Phillip Danault (4)0–2
- P13:57Alex Laferriere Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (9), Kevin Fiala (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:37Alex Laferriere Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (4), Phillip Danault (4)CHI 0 – 2 LA · LA 79% → 92% +13LA 79% → 92%+13 pts
- P33:26Nick Foligno Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nolan Allan (3)CHI 1 – 2 LA · CHI 6% → 19% +13CHI 6% → 19%+13 pts
- P35:34Craig Smith Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (4), Alex Vlasic (6)CHI 2 – 2 LA · CHI 18% → 44% +25CHI 18% → 44%+25 pts
- P311:48Phillip Danault Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Kevin Fiala (5), Trevor Moore (3)CHI 2 – 3 LA · LA 55% → 87% +32LA 55% → 87%+32 pts
- P319:29Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Donato (2), Seth Jones (7)CHI 3 – 3 LA · CHI <1% → 49% +49CHI <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 62%
- ML CHI +155 / LA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- LA: Elo 64.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -166
- CHI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.6 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −19 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +102 Elo | LA 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 62.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.6 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 52.6%9th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.1%27th of 32 |
| 24th of 293–7 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 29 |
| 26th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–6 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–3 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.