Vegas Golden Knights at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals2
- Kaedan KorczakAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints2
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Brandt ClarkeAssists3
- Anze KopitarPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:03Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Kaedan Korczak (2), Tomas Hertl (7)3–6
- P311:04Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (14), Shea Theodore (8)2–6
- P38:03Joel Edmundson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (10), Kevin Fiala (3)1–6
- P36:23Kevin Fiala Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (8), Brandt Clarke (9)1–5
- P214:58Tanner Pearson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Holtz (4), William Karlsson (3)1–4
- P210:55Anze Kopitar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (8), Adrian Kempe (6)0–4
- P210:11Alex Laferriere Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (4), Quinton Byfield (5)0–3
- P114:40Adrian Kempe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (7), Mikey Anderson (3)0–2
- P113:58Warren Foegele Goal (4) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:58Warren Foegele Goal (4) Backhand, assists: noneVGK 0 – 1 LA · LA 45% → 62% +16LA 45% → 62%+16 pts
- P114:40Adrian Kempe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (7), Mikey Anderson (3)VGK 0 – 2 LA · LA 62% → 77% +15LA 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P210:11Alex Laferriere Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (4), Quinton Byfield (5)VGK 0 – 3 LA · LA 83% → 93% +10LA 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P210:55Anze Kopitar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (8), Adrian Kempe (6)VGK 0 – 4 LA · LA 93% → 98% +5LA 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P214:58Tanner Pearson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Holtz (4), William Karlsson (3)VGK 1 – 4 LA · VGK 1% → 5% +4VGK 1% → 5%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 55%
- ML VGK -135 / LA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 56.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -124
- LA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −22 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.56 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +44 Elo | VGK 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.7 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.9 | Margin | −0.316th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 52.7%8th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.1%29th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–1 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.