Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames
Golden Knights- Keegan KolesarGoals2
- Nicolas RoyAssists2
- Keegan KolesarPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:14Nicolas Roy Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (3), Cole Schwindt (3)0–5
- P313:59Keegan Kolesar Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (4)0–4
- P32:19Keegan Kolesar Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cole Schwindt (2), Nicolas Roy (3)0–3
- P23:30Mark Stone Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (13)0–2
- P16:39Alex Pietrangelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Holtz (3), William Karlsson (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:39Alex Pietrangelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Holtz (3), William Karlsson (2)CGY 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 59% → 73% +14VGK 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P23:30Mark Stone Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (13)CGY 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 75% → 87% +12VGK 75% → 87%+12 pts
- P32:19Keegan Kolesar Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cole Schwindt (2), Nicolas Roy (3)CGY 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 93% → 98% +5VGK 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P313:59Keegan Kolesar Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (4)CGY 0 – 4 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P314:14Nicolas Roy Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (3), Cole Schwindt (3)CGY 0 – 5 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 60%
- ML CGY +140 / VGK -165
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 61.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- VGK -149
- CGY +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.5 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −4 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +81 Elo | VGK 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 62.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 4.71st of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +1.63rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.0% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–3 | 7–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 7–2 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 8–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–1 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.