Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Trevor LewisGoals2
- Trevor MooreAssists2
- Trevor LewisPoints2
Wild- Zach BogosianGoals1
- Frederick GaudreauAssists1
- Zach BogosianPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:14Trevor Lewis Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (6), Trevor Moore (6)5–1
- P314:12Quinton Byfield Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (5), Trevor Moore (5)4–1
- P37:39Trevor Lewis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Lee (2), Tanner Jeannot (1)3–1
- P218:55Kevin Fiala Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (5), Anze Kopitar (10)2–1
- P214:30Warren Foegele Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Alex Laferriere (4), Quinton Byfield (6)1–1
- P27:31Zach Bogosian Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (4), Ryan Hartman (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:31Zach Bogosian Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (4), Ryan Hartman (1)LA 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 59% → 77% +18MIN 59% → 77%+18 pts
- P214:30Warren Foegele Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Alex Laferriere (4), Quinton Byfield (6)LA 1 – 1 MIN · LA 22% → 42% +20LA 22% → 42%+20 pts
- P218:55Kevin Fiala Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (5), Anze Kopitar (10)LA 2 – 1 MIN · LA 43% → 67% +24LA 43% → 67%+24 pts
- P37:39Trevor Lewis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Lee (2), Tanner Jeannot (1)LA 3 – 1 MIN · LA 75% → 93% +18LA 75% → 93%+18 pts
- P314:12Quinton Byfield Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (5), Trevor Moore (5)LA 4 – 1 MIN · LA 99% → >99% +1LA 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML LA +155 / MIN -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -166
- LA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.4 – 3.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +9 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +71 Elo | MIN 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.77th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.55th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +1.25th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.3% | Shot share | 49.8%17th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 91.7%4th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 14th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 3–18th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–6 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.