Los Angeles Kings at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Brandt ClarkeAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints1
PredatorsScoring summary
- P317:02Adrian Kempe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Lewis (2), Vladislav Gavrikov (4)3–0
- P30:35Kevin Fiala Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (5), Trevor Moore (4)2–0
- P113:24Anze Kopitar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (11), Adrian Kempe (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:24Anze Kopitar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (11), Adrian Kempe (7)LA 1 – 0 NSH · LA 44% → 60% +16LA 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P30:35Kevin Fiala Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (5), Trevor Moore (4)LA 2 – 0 NSH · LA 71% → 88% +18LA 71% → 88%+18 pts
- P317:02Adrian Kempe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Lewis (2), Vladislav Gavrikov (4)LA 3 – 0 NSH · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 57%
- ML LA +125 / NSH -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- NSH: Elo 57.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NSH -133
- LA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.5 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | 0 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +54 Elo | NSH 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 59.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 32 |
| 14th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.827th of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–2 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.