Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:19Gustav Nyquist Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P318:46Filip Forsberg Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (3)2–4
- P317:43Nathan MacKinnon Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Devon Toews (2), Cale Makar (16)2–3
- P35:15Roman Josi Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (3), Jonathan Marchessault (5)1–3
- P218:40Colton Sissons Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Marc Del Gaizo (1), Zachary L'Heureux (2)1–2
- P28:31Steven Stamkos Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (6), Ryan O'Reilly (6)1–1
- P22:54Cale Makar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (8), Nathan MacKinnon (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:54Cale Makar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (8), Nathan MacKinnon (14)COL 1 – 0 NSH · COL 47% → 65% +18COL 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P28:31Steven Stamkos Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (6), Ryan O'Reilly (6)COL 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 34% → 53% +20NSH 34% → 53%+20 pts
- P218:40Colton Sissons Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Marc Del Gaizo (1), Zachary L'Heureux (2)COL 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 53% → 75% +22NSH 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P35:15Roman Josi Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (3), Jonathan Marchessault (5)COL 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 79% → 94% +15NSH 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P317:43Nathan MacKinnon Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Devon Toews (2), Cale Makar (16)COL 2 – 3 NSH · COL <1% → 3% +3COL <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 54%
- ML COL +110 / NSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- NSH: Elo 48.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 3.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +21 | −1 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.53 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +8 Elo | COL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.2 | Goals allowed | 3.627th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −1.230th of 32 |
| 5th of 3254.6% | Shot share | 55.6%3rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3285.8% | Save percentage | 88.8%20th of 32 |
| 4th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–528th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–9 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–3 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–2 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.