Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:40Anthony Cirelli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (6)5–2
- P310:57
Cale Makar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (11), Nathan MacKinnon (13)4–2 - P26:28Jake Guentzel Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (5), Nikita Kucherov (8)4–1
- P114:56Ivan Ivan Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (15), Nathan MacKinnon (12)3–1
- P15:32Conor Geekie Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (10), Brandon Hagel (5)3–0
- P13:36Jake Guentzel Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (7), Ryan McDonagh (3)2–0
- P11:01Nikita Kucherov Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (4), Victor Hedman (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:01Nikita Kucherov Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (4), Victor Hedman (7)TB 1 – 0 COL · TB 52% → 66% +14TB 52% → 66%+14 pts
- P13:36Jake Guentzel Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (7), Ryan McDonagh (3)TB 2 – 0 COL · TB 67% → 79% +12TB 67% → 79%+12 pts
- P15:32Conor Geekie Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (10), Brandon Hagel (5)TB 3 – 0 COL · TB 79% → 89% +9TB 79% → 89%+9 pts
- P114:56Ivan Ivan Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (15), Nathan MacKinnon (12)TB 3 – 1 COL · COL 9% → 19% +9COL 9% → 19%+9 pts
- P26:28Jake Guentzel Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (5), Nikita Kucherov (8)TB 4 – 1 COL · TB 85% → 93% +9TB 85% → 93%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML TB -120 / COL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- TB: Elo 49.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- COL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 3.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −26 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · COL: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.64 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +6 Elo | COL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.610th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 4.130th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.520th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 53.8%6th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 86.3%32nd of 32 |
| 10th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–5 | 2–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.