Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists2
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:22
Nick Paul Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (7)2–3 - P218:40Gustav Nyquist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (2), Brady Skjei (4)2–2
- P210:19Ryan O'Reilly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (4), Steven Stamkos (1)1–2
- P119:24Mitchell Chaffee Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (3)0–2
- P19:49Brayden Point Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:49Brayden Point Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (6)NSH 0 – 1 TB · TB 55% → 70% +15TB 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P119:24Mitchell Chaffee Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (3)NSH 0 – 2 TB · TB 71% → 84% +13TB 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P210:19Ryan O'Reilly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (4), Steven Stamkos (1)NSH 1 – 2 TB · NSH 13% → 27% +14NSH 13% → 27%+14 pts
- P218:40Gustav Nyquist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (2), Brady Skjei (4)NSH 2 – 2 TB · NSH 24% → 47% +22NSH 24% → 47%+22 pts
- OT3:22Nick Paul Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (7)NSH 2 – 3 TB · TB 51% → 99% +48TB 51% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML NSH +115 / TB -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- TB: Elo 57.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- NSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.1 – 3.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +53 Elo | TB 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.95th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.07th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.98th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3256.1% | Shot share | 50.8%15th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%19th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.