Edmonton Oilers at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints3
PredatorsScoring summary
- P312:46Zach Hyman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (4), Jeff Skinner (3)5–1
- P31:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (7), Evan Bouchard (4)4–1
- P29:03Leon Draisaitl Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P19:54Corey Perry Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Drake Caggiula (1), Noah Philp (1)2–1
- P15:05Filip Forsberg Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P10:37Viktor Arvidsson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (5), Vasily Podkolzin (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:37Viktor Arvidsson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (5), Vasily Podkolzin (2)EDM 1 – 0 NSH · EDM 45% → 59% +15EDM 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P15:05Filip Forsberg Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 40% → 55% +15NSH 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P19:54Corey Perry Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Drake Caggiula (1), Noah Philp (1)EDM 2 – 1 NSH · EDM 45% → 61% +16EDM 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P29:03Leon Draisaitl Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 3 – 1 NSH · EDM 66% → 82% +16EDM 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P31:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (7), Evan Bouchard (4)EDM 4 – 1 NSH · EDM 89% → 97% +8EDM 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 55%
- ML EDM +115 / NSH -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- NSH: Elo 51.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -124
- EDM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 3.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +1 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +9 Elo | NSH 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.2 | Goals scored | 2.627th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.3 | Margin | −0.926th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.8% | Shot share | 56.3%4th of 32 |
| 30th of 3287.3% | Save percentage | 89.6%16th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–8 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | — | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–7 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–1 NSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.