Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Jared SpurgeonAssists2
- Jared SpurgeonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:14Matt Boldy Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (7), Jared Spurgeon (3)1–2
- P119:08William Nylander Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (6), Mitch Marner (12)1–1
- P110:19Ryan Hartman Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (3), Jared Spurgeon (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:19Ryan Hartman Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (3), Jared Spurgeon (2)TOR 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 53% → 68% +15MIN 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P119:08William Nylander Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (6), Mitch Marner (12)TOR 1 – 1 MIN · TOR 31% → 47% +17TOR 31% → 47%+17 pts
- OT2:14Matt Boldy Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (7), Jared Spurgeon (3)TOR 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 51% → 96% +45MIN 51% → 96%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML TOR +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.2 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +15 | +8 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +57 Elo | MIN 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.95th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +1.25th of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 91.3%6th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–0 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.