Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Steven LorentzGoals1
- Jake McCabeAssists1
- Steven LorentzPoints1
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Ryan SuterAssists2
- Ryan SuterPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:21Pavel Buchnevich Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (5)2–4
- P313:52Steven Lorentz Goal (2) Backhand, assists: David Kampf (2), Jake McCabe (5)2–3
- P212:33Colton Parayko Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (3), Dylan Holloway (2)1–3
- P28:08Jordan Kyrou Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P23:29Colton Parayko Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan Walker (2), Ryan Suter (2)1–1
- P15:25Mitch Marner Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Conor Timmins (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:25Mitch Marner Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Conor Timmins (3)TOR 1 – 0 STL · TOR 64% → 77% +13TOR 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P23:29Colton Parayko Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan Walker (2), Ryan Suter (2)TOR 1 – 1 STL · STL 23% → 39% +16STL 23% → 39%+16 pts
- P28:08Jordan Kyrou Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 1 – 2 STL · STL 39% → 59% +20STL 39% → 59%+20 pts
- P212:33Colton Parayko Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (3), Dylan Holloway (2)TOR 1 – 3 STL · STL 61% → 80% +18STL 61% → 80%+18 pts
- P313:52Steven Lorentz Goal (2) Backhand, assists: David Kampf (2), Jake McCabe (5)TOR 2 – 3 STL · TOR 2% → 15% +14TOR 2% → 15%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML TOR -200 / STL +170
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 47.6%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -180
- STL +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.2 – 2.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −2 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +16 Elo | STL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.527th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.725th of 32 |
| 10th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 47.1%27th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%14th of 32 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 17th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.