St. Louis Blues at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Nathan WalkerGoals1
- Philip BrobergAssists1
- Nathan WalkerPoints1
Flyers- Garnet HathawayGoals1
- Ryan PoehlingAssists1
- Garnet HathawayPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:59Bobby Brink Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Joel Farabee (4), Scott Laughton (3)1–2
- P39:58Nathan Walker Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (7), Zack Bolduc (3)1–1
- P111:12Garnet Hathaway Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (5), Nick Seeler (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:12Garnet Hathaway Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (5), Nick Seeler (2)STL 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 56% → 71% +15PHI 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P39:58Nathan Walker Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (7), Zack Bolduc (3)STL 1 – 1 PHI · STL 17% → 47% +30STL 17% → 47%+30 pts
- P316:59Bobby Brink Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Joel Farabee (4), Scott Laughton (3)STL 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 52% → 95% +44PHI 52% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML STL +125 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -133
- STL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +2 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +9 Elo | PHI 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 4.028th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.7 | Margin | −1.128th of 32 |
| 26th of 3246.9% | Shot share | 48.9%20th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 86.6%31st of 32 |
| 12th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.