Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Emil AndraeAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints1
BruinsScoring summary
- P319:36Joel Farabee Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none2–0
- P25:32Tyson Foerster Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Andrae (1), Morgan Frost (5)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:32Tyson Foerster Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Andrae (1), Morgan Frost (5)PHI 1 – 0 BOS · PHI 44% → 63% +19PHI 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P319:36Joel Farabee Goal (2) Backhand, assists: nonePHI 2 – 0 BOS · PHI >99% → 100% +0PHI >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML PHI +130 / BOS -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -138
- PHI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −24 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.59 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +73 Elo | BOS 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.4 | Goals allowed | 3.624th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.4 | Margin | −0.623rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 48.0%24th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3285.3% | Save percentage | 88.9%22nd of 32 |
| 29th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–29th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.