St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals1
- Philip BrobergAssists1
- Dylan HollowayPoints1
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints4
Scoring summary
- P315:27Adam Gaudette Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none1–8
- P39:04Dylan Holloway Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (2), Philip Broberg (6)1–7
- P37:31Tim Stützle Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (4), Claude Giroux (6)0–7
- P211:50Adam Gaudette Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (2)0–6
- P211:08Brady Tkachuk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (7), Tim Stützle (9)0–5
- P28:55Brady Tkachuk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (7), Tim Stützle (8)0–4
- P115:04Tim Stützle Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none0–3
- P14:44Noah Gregor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (1), Zack Ostapchuk (1)0–2
- P11:04Josh Norris Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (5), Drake Batherson (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:04Josh Norris Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (5), Drake Batherson (6)STL 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 62% → 75% +13OTT 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P14:44Noah Gregor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (1), Zack Ostapchuk (1)STL 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 75% → 86% +10OTT 75% → 86%+10 pts
- P115:04Tim Stützle Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneSTL 0 – 3 OTT · OTT 87% → 94% +7OTT 87% → 94%+7 pts
- P28:55Brady Tkachuk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (7), Tim Stützle (8)STL 0 – 4 OTT · OTT 96% → 99% +3OTT 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P211:08Brady Tkachuk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (7), Tim Stützle (9)STL 0 – 5 OTT · OTT 99% → >99% +1OTT 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 62%
- ML STL +155 / OTT -185
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- OTT: Elo 54.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -166
- STL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.6 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +14 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +33 Elo | OTT 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.87th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.827th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 50.8%12th of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 88.2%27th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–0 OTT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.