Seattle Kraken at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists1
- Eeli TolvanenPoints1
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- John TavaresAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:17Auston Matthews Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P316:32Eeli Tolvanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (4), Matty Beniers (5)1–3
- P29:24William Nylander Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (6), Max Pacioretty (4)0–3
- P21:39William Nylander Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (3), John Tavares (5)0–2
- P119:55Matthew Knies Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (11), Auston Matthews (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:55Matthew Knies Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (11), Auston Matthews (5)SEA 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 62% → 78% +15TOR 62% → 78%+15 pts
- P21:39William Nylander Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (3), John Tavares (5)SEA 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 78% → 89% +11TOR 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P29:24William Nylander Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (6), Max Pacioretty (4)SEA 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 90% → 96% +6TOR 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P316:32Eeli Tolvanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (4), Matty Beniers (5)SEA 1 – 3 TOR · SEA <1% → <1% +0SEA <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P318:17Auston Matthews Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 1 – 4 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 65%
- ML SEA +175 / TOR -210
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -186
- SEA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.8 – 3.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −16 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +52 Elo | TOR 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.215th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.6 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.3% | Shot share | 52.4%9th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 4th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 3–210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–2 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.