Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Ryan McDonaghAssists1
- Nick PaulPoints1
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:31Kirill Kaprizov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (2)3–5
- P317:34Nick Paul Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (4), Erik Cernak (4)3–4
- P316:57Matt Boldy Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P314:37Kirill Kaprizov Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Marco Rossi (6), Mats Zuccarello (6)2–3
- P36:23Jake Guentzel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (9), Nikita Kucherov (9)2–2
- P32:41Brock Faber Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (6), Jakub Lauko (2)1–2
- P20:47Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (14), Mats Zuccarello (5)1–1
- P119:15Brayden Point Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (8), Brandon Hagel (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:15Brayden Point Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (8), Brandon Hagel (7)TB 1 – 0 MIN · TB 49% → 66% +17TB 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P20:47Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (14), Mats Zuccarello (5)TB 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 33% → 51% +17MIN 33% → 51%+17 pts
- P32:41Brock Faber Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (6), Jakub Lauko (2)TB 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 51% → 76% +25MIN 51% → 76%+25 pts
- P36:23Jake Guentzel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (9), Nikita Kucherov (9)TB 2 – 2 MIN · TB 22% → 49% +28TB 22% → 49%+28 pts
- P314:37Kirill Kaprizov Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Marco Rossi (6), Mats Zuccarello (6)TB 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 50% → 89% +39MIN 50% → 89%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML TB -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +9 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +19 Elo | MIN 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.89th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.1 | Margin | +1.15th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.5% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 91.4%5th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.