Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Kiefer SherwoodGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists3
- Quinn HughesPoints3
Ducks- Olen ZellwegerGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Olen ZellwegerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:18Danton Heinen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (4), Teddy Blueger (4)5–1
- P312:08Jake DeBrusk Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (5), Quinn Hughes (10)4–1
- P22:20Elias Pettersson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (9), Conor Garland (7)3–1
- P117:20Kiefer Sherwood Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Brannstrom (2), Danton Heinen (3)2–1
- P116:22Brock Boeser Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (8), J.T. Miller (6)1–1
- P15:35Olen Zellweger Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (5), Mason McTavish (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:35Olen Zellweger Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (5), Mason McTavish (6)VAN 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 33% → 48% +15ANA 33% → 48%+15 pts
- P116:22Brock Boeser Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (8), J.T. Miller (6)VAN 1 – 1 ANA · VAN 49% → 65% +17VAN 49% → 65%+17 pts
- P117:20Kiefer Sherwood Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Brannstrom (2), Danton Heinen (3)VAN 2 – 1 ANA · VAN 65% → 80% +14VAN 65% → 80%+14 pts
- P22:20Elias Pettersson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (9), Conor Garland (7)VAN 3 – 1 ANA · VAN 80% → 90% +10VAN 80% → 90%+10 pts
- P312:08Jake DeBrusk Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (5), Quinn Hughes (10)VAN 4 – 1 ANA · VAN 99% → >99% +1VAN 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 68%
- ML VAN -240 / ANA +200
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- VAN: Elo 57.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- VAN -212
- ANA +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.8 – 2.7 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +53 Elo | VAN 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.232nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.625th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 44.1%30th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 92.4%2nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–7 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–0 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.