New Jersey Devils at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists2
- Nico HischierPoints3
CanucksScoring summary
- P314:06Tomas Tatar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Bastian (3), Justin Dowling (1)6–0
- P39:22Jack Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (7), Jesper Bratt (11)5–0
- P214:04Ondrej Palat Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (6), Jack Hughes (8)4–0
- P23:07Timo Meier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (5)3–0
- P21:35Dawson Mercer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (4)2–0
- P10:53Nico Hischier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:53Nico Hischier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (4)NJ 1 – 0 VAN · NJ 48% → 62% +14NJ 48% → 62%+14 pts
- P21:35Dawson Mercer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (4)NJ 2 – 0 VAN · NJ 66% → 81% +15NJ 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P23:07Timo Meier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (5)NJ 3 – 0 VAN · NJ 81% → 91% +10NJ 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P214:04Ondrej Palat Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (6), Jack Hughes (8)NJ 4 – 0 VAN · NJ 95% → 99% +4NJ 95% → 99%+4 pts
- P39:22Jack Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (7), Jesper Bratt (11)NJ 5 – 0 VAN · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 52%
- ML NJ +100 / VAN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- VAN: Elo 57.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- VAN -109
- NJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.2 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −11 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +54 Elo | VAN 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.314th of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 11th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–1 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.