Carolina Hurricanes at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- William CarrierGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- William CarrierPoints1
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- Brock BoeserAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:47Sebastian Aho Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (3), Martin Necas (7)4–3
- P316:55Pius Suter Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (2), Nils Hoglander (2)3–3
- P37:56Quinn Hughes Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (4), J.T. Miller (5)3–2
- P21:53Jack Roslovic Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (3), Andrei Svechnikov (5)3–1
- P115:33Martin Necas Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (6), Eric Robinson (3)2–1
- P17:17Brock Boeser Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (4), Quinn Hughes (6)1–1
- P15:40William Carrier Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (2), Jack Drury (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:17Brock Boeser Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (4), Quinn Hughes (6)CAR 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 31% → 46% +15VAN 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P115:33Martin Necas Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (6), Eric Robinson (3)CAR 2 – 1 VAN · CAR 54% → 70% +16CAR 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P37:56Quinn Hughes Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (4), J.T. Miller (5)CAR 3 – 2 VAN · VAN 5% → 19% +15VAN 5% → 19%+15 pts
- P316:55Pius Suter Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (2), Nils Hoglander (2)CAR 3 – 3 VAN · VAN 5% → 49% +44VAN 5% → 49%+44 pts
- OT0:47Sebastian Aho Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (3), Martin Necas (7)CAR 4 – 3 VAN · CAR 51% → 92% +41CAR 51% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 54%
- ML CAR -130 / VAN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 48.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -119
- VAN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 2.6 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +3 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +13 Elo | VAN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.08th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.6% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 32 |
| 4th of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%10th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–2 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–6 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–6 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 0–2 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.