Minnesota Wild at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Zach BogosianGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists3
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals2
- Henry ThrunAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:25Matt Boldy Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P316:08Macklin Celebrini Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (10), Henry Thrun (3)4–2
- P36:02Jonas Brodin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (5), Kirill Kaprizov (17)4–1
- P213:26Matt Boldy Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Faber (5), Kirill Kaprizov (16)3–1
- P28:01Mats Zuccarello Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (15), Marco Rossi (8)2–1
- P24:36Macklin Celebrini Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (9), Henry Thrun (2)1–1
- P12:22Zach Bogosian Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (2), Marcus Foligno (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:22Zach Bogosian Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (2), Marcus Foligno (2)MIN 1 – 0 SJ · MIN 69% → 81% +12MIN 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P24:36Macklin Celebrini Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (9), Henry Thrun (2)MIN 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 19% → 35% +15SJ 19% → 35%+15 pts
- P28:01Mats Zuccarello Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (15), Marco Rossi (8)MIN 2 – 1 SJ · MIN 64% → 81% +16MIN 64% → 81%+16 pts
- P213:26Matt Boldy Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Faber (5), Kirill Kaprizov (16)MIN 3 – 1 SJ · MIN 81% → 92% +11MIN 81% → 92%+11 pts
- P36:02Jonas Brodin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (5), Kirill Kaprizov (17)MIN 4 – 1 SJ · MIN 96% → >99% +3MIN 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 69%
- ML MIN -260 / SJ +215
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.6%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -227
- SJ +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 2.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +9 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +53 Elo | MIN 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.429th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −1.230th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 45.2%29th of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%18th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 5th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–5 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | — |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 4–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–0 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.