Columbus Blue Jackets at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Justin DanforthAssists2
- Justin DanforthPoints2
Kings- Warren FoegeleGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists2
- Warren FoegelePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:29Brandt Clarke Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (12), Adrian Kempe (9)2–5
- P37:05Alex Laferriere Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Joel Edmundson (3), Warren Foegele (3)2–4
- P30:49Ivan Provorov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (4), Adam Fantilli (4)2–3
- P30:30Trevor Moore Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (8)1–3
- P26:12Warren Foegele Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Akil Thomas (1), Samuel Helenius (1)1–2
- P24:16Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (8), Anze Kopitar (11)1–1
- P113:26Dmitri Voronkov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Justin Danforth (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:26Dmitri Voronkov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Justin Danforth (3)CBJ 1 – 0 LA · CBJ 36% → 52% +16CBJ 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P24:16Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (8), Anze Kopitar (11)CBJ 1 – 1 LA · LA 44% → 62% +19LA 44% → 62%+19 pts
- P26:12Warren Foegele Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Akil Thomas (1), Samuel Helenius (1)CBJ 1 – 2 LA · LA 62% → 78% +17LA 62% → 78%+17 pts
- P30:30Trevor Moore Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (8)CBJ 1 – 3 LA · LA 81% → 93% +13LA 81% → 93%+13 pts
- P30:49Ivan Provorov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (4), Adam Fantilli (4)CBJ 2 – 3 LA · CBJ 6% → 19% +13CBJ 6% → 19%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- LA 66%
- ML CBJ +180 / LA -215
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- LA: Elo 63.7%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- LA -191
- CBJ +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.7 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +12 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +97 Elo | LA 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 68.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.313th of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 54.3%4th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 88.9%26th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 28th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–4 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 0–2 LA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.