Vancouver Canucks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Quinn HughesGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- Quinn HughesPoints2
Kings- Vladislav GavrikovGoals1
- Warren FoegeleAssists1
- Vladislav GavrikovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:46J.T. Miller Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P313:57Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (7), Phillip Danault (7)3–2
- P32:44Quinn Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P25:51Jake DeBrusk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (11), Filip Hronek (4)2–1
- P114:20Conor Garland Goal (4) , assists: none1–1
- P11:43Quinton Byfield Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Alex Laferriere (6), Warren Foegele (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:43Quinton Byfield Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Alex Laferriere (6), Warren Foegele (2)VAN 0 – 1 LA · LA 46% → 60% +15LA 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P114:20Conor Garland Goal (4) , assists: noneVAN 1 – 1 LA · VAN 37% → 54% +16VAN 37% → 54%+16 pts
- P25:51Jake DeBrusk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (11), Filip Hronek (4)VAN 2 – 1 LA · VAN 53% → 71% +18VAN 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P32:44Quinn Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 3 – 1 LA · VAN 77% → 92% +15VAN 77% → 92%+15 pts
- P313:57Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (7), Phillip Danault (7)VAN 3 – 2 LA · LA <1% → 12% +11LA <1% → 12%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 54%
- ML VAN -130 / LA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- VAN: Elo 49.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -119
- LA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 2.6 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −13 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +6 Elo | LA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 54.2%4th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.0%25th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 2nd of 325–1 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–7 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–3 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.