Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Miro HeiskanenGoals2
- Mason MarchmentAssists4
- Mason MarchmentPoints5
Penguins- Jack St. IvanyAssists1
- Jack St. IvanyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:10Wyatt Johnston Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (10), Mason Marchment (10)7–1
- P215:03Anthony Beauvillier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (1), Jack St. Ivany (1)6–1
- P118:39Tyler Seguin Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Mason Marchment (9), Matt Duchene (9)6–0
- P114:37Miro Heiskanen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–0
- P113:09Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (8), Esa Lindell (5)4–0
- P110:16Mason Marchment Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Smith (2)3–0
- P17:13Logan Stankoven Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (4), Esa Lindell (4)2–0
- P12:33Matt Duchene Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (7), Brendan Smith (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:33Matt Duchene Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (7), Brendan Smith (1)DAL 1 – 0 PIT · DAL 60% → 73% +13DAL 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P17:13Logan Stankoven Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (4), Esa Lindell (4)DAL 2 – 0 PIT · DAL 73% → 84% +11DAL 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P110:16Mason Marchment Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Smith (2)DAL 3 – 0 PIT · DAL 85% → 92% +8DAL 85% → 92%+8 pts
- P113:09Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (8), Esa Lindell (5)DAL 4 – 0 PIT · DAL 93% → 97% +4DAL 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P114:37Miro Heiskanen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 5 – 0 PIT · DAL 97% → 99% +2DAL 97% → 99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 60%
- ML DAL -165 / PIT +140
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 54.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.5 – 3.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −6 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · PIT: Joel Blomqvist: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +32 Elo | DAL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.830th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.929th of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 50.0%18th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 89.1%25th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 15th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–7 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 4–9 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.