Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:14
Logan Stankoven Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jamie Benn (3), Ilya Lyubushkin (3)1–3 - P39:00Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Connor Bedard (10), Ryan Donato (3)1–2
- P210:15Tyler Seguin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (1), Sam Steel (3)0–2
- P111:06Sam Steel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (10), Esa Lindell (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:06Sam Steel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (10), Esa Lindell (3)CHI 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 72% → 84% +12DAL 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P210:15Tyler Seguin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (1), Sam Steel (3)CHI 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 83% → 93% +10DAL 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P39:00Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Connor Bedard (10), Ryan Donato (3)CHI 1 – 2 DAL · CHI 2% → 13% +11CHI 2% → 13%+11 pts
- P319:14Logan Stankoven Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jamie Benn (3), Ilya Lyubushkin (3)CHI 1 – 3 DAL · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 74%
- ML CHI +270 / DAL -340
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 77.0%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -286
- CHI +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 4.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +3 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +210 Elo | DAL 77.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 74.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.79th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3247.9% | Shot share | 50.1%17th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 91.8%4th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 15th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–7 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–4 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.