Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists3
- Aaron EkbladPoints3
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals1
- Ilya LyubushkinAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:26Jamie Benn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (9), Esa Lindell (2)6–4
- P315:38Mavrik Bourque Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Sam Steel (2), Ilya Lyubushkin (2)6–3
- P310:08Sam Reinhart Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (5), Gustav Forsling (5)6–2
- P32:31Mackie Samoskevich Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (3), Niko Mikkola (5)5–2
- P26:07Sam Reinhart Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (4), Aaron Ekblad (6)4–2
- P21:32Esa Lindell Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (3), Matt Duchene (7)3–2
- P115:52Anton Lundell Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (5), Sam Bennett (5)3–1
- P110:45Tyler Seguin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (1), Matt Duchene (6)2–1
- P17:11Aleksander Barkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (10), Evan Rodrigues (3)2–0
- P10:28Evan Rodrigues Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (4), Aleksander Barkov (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:28Evan Rodrigues Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (4), Aleksander Barkov (3)FLA 1 – 0 DAL · FLA 52% → 66% +14FLA 52% → 66%+14 pts
- P110:45Tyler Seguin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (1), Matt Duchene (6)FLA 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 20% → 33% +13DAL 20% → 33%+13 pts
- P115:52Anton Lundell Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (5), Sam Bennett (5)FLA 3 – 1 DAL · FLA 68% → 82% +13FLA 68% → 82%+13 pts
- P21:32Esa Lindell Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (3), Matt Duchene (7)FLA 3 – 2 DAL · DAL 17% → 31% +14DAL 17% → 31%+14 pts
- P26:07Sam Reinhart Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (4), Aaron Ekblad (6)FLA 4 – 2 DAL · FLA 70% → 84% +14FLA 70% → 84%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 52%
- ML FLA -120 / DAL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- FLA: Elo 50.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -109
- DAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.3 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +1 Elo | FLA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 1.91st of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +1.35th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 93.7%1st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–3 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 2–0 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.