Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:43Aleksander Barkov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (9), Gustav Forsling (4)5–2
- P314:35Sam Bennett Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (2)4–2
- P216:44Carter Verhaeghe Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (5), Sam Bennett (4)3–2
- P212:37Rasmus Dahlin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (6)2–2
- P210:45Jason Zucker Goal (2) Batted, assists: Tage Thompson (5), JJ Peterka (4)2–1
- P111:56Sam Reinhart Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (2), Carter Verhaeghe (6)2–0
- P111:01Jesper Boqvist Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (7), Eetu Luostarinen (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:01Jesper Boqvist Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (7), Eetu Luostarinen (3)FLA 1 – 0 BUF · FLA 56% → 71% +15FLA 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P111:56Sam Reinhart Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (2), Carter Verhaeghe (6)FLA 2 – 0 BUF · FLA 72% → 84% +12FLA 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P210:45Jason Zucker Goal (2) Batted, assists: Tage Thompson (5), JJ Peterka (4)FLA 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 12% → 26% +14BUF 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P212:37Rasmus Dahlin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (6)FLA 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 25% → 45% +20BUF 25% → 45%+20 pts
- P216:44Carter Verhaeghe Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (5), Sam Bennett (4)FLA 3 – 2 BUF · FLA 54% → 76% +21FLA 54% → 76%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 57%
- ML FLA -145 / BUF +125
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- FLA: Elo 52.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -133
- BUF +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.5 – 3.0 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +19 Elo | FLA 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 32 |
| 13th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%19th of 32 |
| 6th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–1 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.