Dallas Stars at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals1
- Tomas NosekAssists1
- Evan RodriguesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:00Sam Reinhart Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (4)2–4
- P32:32A.J. Greer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (1)2–3
- P211:56Matt Duchene Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Miro Heiskanen (4), Thomas Harley (5)2–2
- P211:22Evgenii Dadonov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (5), Matt Duchene (8)1–2
- P28:47Matthew Tkachuk Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Uvis Balinskis (2), Aleksander Barkov (6)0–2
- P114:45Evan Rodrigues Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Niko Mikkola (6), Sam Reinhart (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:45Evan Rodrigues Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Niko Mikkola (6), Sam Reinhart (11)DAL 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 50% → 66% +16FLA 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P28:47Matthew Tkachuk Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Uvis Balinskis (2), Aleksander Barkov (6)DAL 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 69% → 84% +15FLA 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P211:22Evgenii Dadonov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (5), Matt Duchene (8)DAL 1 – 2 FLA · DAL 15% → 30% +15DAL 15% → 30%+15 pts
- P211:56Matt Duchene Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Miro Heiskanen (4), Thomas Harley (5)DAL 2 – 2 FLA · DAL 30% → 50% +20DAL 30% → 50%+20 pts
- P32:32A.J. Greer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (1)DAL 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 50% → 75% +25FLA 50% → 75%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 50%
- ML DAL -110 / FLA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- FLA: Elo 49.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- FLA -100
- DAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.3 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | FLA and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −20 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.50 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +1 Elo | DAL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.710th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.316th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.412th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 0–3 FLA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.