Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals1
- Connor MurphyAssists1
- Nick FolignoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:47Andrew Copp Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (11), Simon Edvinsson (4)4–1
- P33:03Joe Veleno Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Moritz Seider (7), Michael Rasmussen (2)3–1
- P212:27Dylan Larkin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (5)2–1
- P28:42Nick Foligno Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (1), Connor Murphy (7)1–1
- P119:58Alex DeBrincat Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:58Alex DeBrincat Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (2)DET 1 – 0 CHI · DET 50% → 67% +17DET 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P28:42Nick Foligno Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (1), Connor Murphy (7)DET 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 31% → 50% +19CHI 31% → 50%+19 pts
- P212:27Dylan Larkin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (5)DET 2 – 1 CHI · DET 50% → 70% +20DET 50% → 70%+20 pts
- P33:03Joe Veleno Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Moritz Seider (7), Michael Rasmussen (2)DET 3 – 1 CHI · DET 75% → 92% +16DET 75% → 92%+16 pts
- P317:47Andrew Copp Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (11), Simon Edvinsson (4)DET 4 – 1 CHI · DET >99% → >99% +0DET >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blackhawks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CHI 50%
- ML DET -110 / CHI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- CHI: Elo 44.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHI -100
- DET -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.3 – 3.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +6 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +40 Elo | DET 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.318th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3240.7% | Shot share | 47.4%24th of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.7%9th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 10th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–331st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–6 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.