Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints1
Scoring summary
- P214:38Dylan Larkin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (4), Lucas Raymond (10)1–2
- P27:49Dylan Larkin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (6)1–1
- P111:39
Alex Tuch Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:39Alex Tuch Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneBUF 1 – 0 DET · BUF 47% → 63% +16BUF 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P27:49Dylan Larkin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (6)BUF 1 – 1 DET · DET 33% → 52% +19DET 33% → 52%+19 pts
- P214:38Dylan Larkin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (4), Lucas Raymond (10)BUF 1 – 2 DET · DET 52% → 73% +21DET 52% → 73%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML BUF +105 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- DET: Elo 60.2%, market 52.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -112
- BUF +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +6 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +72 Elo | DET 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.724th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.723rd of 32 |
| 19th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 40.6%32nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.6%8th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–6 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–3 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.