New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Anders LeeAssists2
- Bo HorvatPoints2
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Bowen ByramAssists2
- Jason ZuckerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:59Owen Power Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (2), Bowen Byram (5)4–3
- P38:08Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (2) Poke, assists: Bo Horvat (3), Anders Lee (2)4–2
- P35:27Jason Zucker Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Tage Thompson (6), Bowen Byram (4)3–2
- P212:20Kyle Palmieri Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (5), Simon Holmstrom (3)3–1
- P25:25Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P19:43Bo Horvat Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Anders Lee (1)1–1
- P19:03Dylan Cozens Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (6), Rasmus Dahlin (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:43Bo Horvat Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Anders Lee (1)NYI 1 – 1 BUF · NYI 34% → 49% +15NYI 34% → 49%+15 pts
- P25:25Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 2 – 1 BUF · NYI 49% → 68% +19NYI 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P212:20Kyle Palmieri Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (5), Simon Holmstrom (3)NYI 3 – 1 BUF · NYI 70% → 85% +16NYI 70% → 85%+16 pts
- P35:27Jason Zucker Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Tage Thompson (6), Bowen Byram (4)NYI 3 – 2 BUF · BUF 7% → 23% +16BUF 7% → 23%+16 pts
- P38:08Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (2) Poke, assists: Bo Horvat (3), Anders Lee (2)NYI 4 – 2 BUF · NYI 79% → 95% +16NYI 79% → 95%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 51%
- ML NYI -105 / BUF -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- BUF: Elo 54.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -104
- NYI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.7 – 2.8 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −20 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.51 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +34 Elo | BUF 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.2 | Goals scored | 3.217th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.625th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.417th of 32 |
| 5th of 3255.0% | Shot share | 48.5%21st of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 88.6%23rd of 32 |
| 16th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–2 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.