Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists2
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Bo Horvat Goal Backhand0–1
- P312:48Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (5), Anders Lee (4)3–3
- P39:41Simon Holmstrom Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Kyle Palmieri (5), Ryan Pulock (4)3–2
- P37:44Michael Bunting Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesse Puljujarvi (5), Noel Acciari (3)3–1
- P213:37Evgeni Malkin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (7), Rickard Rakell (5)2–1
- P212:21Kyle Palmieri Goal (6) Batted, assists: Bo Horvat (4), Maxim Tsyplakov (6)1–1
- P25:27Sidney Crosby Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (12), Rickard Rakell (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:27Sidney Crosby Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (12), Rickard Rakell (4)PIT 1 – 0 NYI · PIT 47% → 66% +19PIT 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P212:21Kyle Palmieri Goal (6) Batted, assists: Bo Horvat (4), Maxim Tsyplakov (6)PIT 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 32% → 53% +21NYI 32% → 53%+21 pts
- P213:37Evgeni Malkin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (7), Rickard Rakell (5)PIT 2 – 1 NYI · PIT 47% → 68% +21PIT 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P37:44Michael Bunting Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesse Puljujarvi (5), Noel Acciari (3)PIT 3 – 1 NYI · PIT 78% → 94% +17PIT 78% → 94%+17 pts
- P312:48Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (5), Anders Lee (4)PIT 3 – 3 NYI · NYI 15% → 51% +36NYI 15% → 51%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 54%
- ML PIT +110 / NYI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- NYI: Elo 52.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.4 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +19 Elo | NYI 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.331st of 32 |
| 28th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.824th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.5% | Shot share | 53.9%5th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–5 | Road vs home | 1–431st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–8 | 3–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–2 NYI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.