Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Christian DvorakGoals1
- Emil HeinemanAssists1
- Christian DvorakPoints1
Penguins- Blake LizotteGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists1
- Blake LizottePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:15Blake Lizotte Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (3)1–3
- P35:32Christian Dvorak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (1), Juraj Slafkovsky (7)1–2
- P218:40Sidney Crosby Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (3), Erik Karlsson (7)0–2
- P115:57Sidney Crosby Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:57Sidney Crosby Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (3)MTL 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 61% → 76% +15PIT 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P218:40Sidney Crosby Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (3), Erik Karlsson (7)MTL 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 79% → 92% +13PIT 79% → 92%+13 pts
- P35:32Christian Dvorak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (1), Juraj Slafkovsky (7)MTL 1 – 2 PIT · MTL 5% → 18% +13MTL 5% → 18%+13 pts
- P319:15Blake Lizotte Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (3)MTL 1 – 3 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 62%
- ML MTL +155 / PIT -185
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 60.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -166
- MTL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −3 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +76 Elo | PIT 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 67.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.3 | Goals allowed | 4.130th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.4 | Margin | −1.229th of 32 |
| 30th of 3243.3% | Shot share | 48.5%20th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 89.0%18th of 32 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 28th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–6 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–3 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 0–4 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.