New York Islanders at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Casey CizikasGoals1
- Pierre EngvallAssists1
- Casey CizikasPoints1
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals2
- Braden SchneiderAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:37Artemi Panarin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (5), Mika Zibanejad (8)2–5
- P35:18Adam Edstrom Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Braden Schneider (3), Zac Jones (2)2–4
- P219:52Brock Nelson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (4), Anders Lee (3)2–3
- P211:04Artemi Panarin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (7), Adam Fox (9)1–3
- P24:38Casey Cizikas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (1), Simon Holmstrom (4)1–2
- P21:21Vincent Trocheck Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (6)0–2
- P13:44Chris Kreider Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:44Chris Kreider Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (6)NYI 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 63% → 76% +13NYR 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P24:38Casey Cizikas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (1), Simon Holmstrom (4)NYI 1 – 2 NYR · NYI 11% → 23% +12NYI 11% → 23%+12 pts
- P211:04Artemi Panarin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (7), Adam Fox (9)NYI 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 78% → 90% +12NYR 78% → 90%+12 pts
- P219:52Brock Nelson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (4), Anders Lee (3)NYI 2 – 3 NYR · NYI 7% → 20% +13NYI 7% → 20%+13 pts
- P35:18Adam Edstrom Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Braden Schneider (3), Zac Jones (2)NYI 2 – 4 NYR · NYR 82% → 95% +13NYR 82% → 95%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 64%
- ML NYI +165 / NYR -195
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- NYR: Elo 66.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- NYR -175
- NYI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.4 – 3.1 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +1 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +118 Elo | NYR 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.94th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.21st of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.5 | Margin | +1.72nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3254.6% | Shot share | 48.3%21st of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 93.6%1st of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–8 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–3 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.