Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Adam GaudetteGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Adam GaudettePoints1
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Alexis LafreniereAssists1
- Alexis LafrenierePoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:28Adam Gaudette Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (8), Thomas Chabot (5)1–2
- P32:56Alexis Lafrenière Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Filip Chytil (4), Reilly Smith (5)0–2
- P13:03Artemi Panarin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (5)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:03Artemi Panarin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (5)OTT 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 63% → 76% +13NYR 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P32:56Alexis Lafrenière Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Filip Chytil (4), Reilly Smith (5)OTT 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 81% → 94% +13NYR 81% → 94%+13 pts
- P312:28Adam Gaudette Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (8), Thomas Chabot (5)OTT 1 – 2 NYR · OTT 1% → 13% +11OTT 1% → 13%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 63%
- ML OTT +160 / NYR -190
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- NYR: Elo 61.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYR -170
- OTT +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.6 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | 0 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +84 Elo | NYR 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 63.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.2 | Goals scored | 4.14th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.32nd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +1.82nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 93.0%1st of 32 |
| 28th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–2 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.