Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Capitals- Rasmus SandinGoals1
- Hendrix LapierreAssists1
- Andrew MangiapanePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:37Noel Acciari Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (6)4–2
- P310:28Evgeni Malkin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (2), Kris Letang (4)3–2
- P26:04Andrew Mangiapane Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jakub Vrana (3), Hendrix Lapierre (2)2–2
- P18:22Rasmus Sandin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (6), Tom Wilson (4)2–1
- P16:59Michael Bunting Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (8)2–0
- P13:11Erik Karlsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (13), Sidney Crosby (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:11Erik Karlsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (13), Sidney Crosby (10)PIT 1 – 0 WSH · PIT 38% → 53% +15PIT 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P16:59Michael Bunting Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (8)PIT 2 – 0 WSH · PIT 54% → 68% +15PIT 54% → 68%+15 pts
- P18:22Rasmus Sandin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (6), Tom Wilson (4)PIT 2 – 1 WSH · WSH 31% → 46% +15WSH 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P26:04Andrew Mangiapane Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jakub Vrana (3), Hendrix Lapierre (2)PIT 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 40% → 59% +19WSH 40% → 59%+19 pts
- P310:28Evgeni Malkin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (2), Kris Letang (4)PIT 3 – 2 WSH · PIT 45% → 79% +34PIT 45% → 79%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 62%
- ML PIT +155 / WSH -185
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 63.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -166
- PIT +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −3 | PIT: Joel Blomqvist: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +97 Elo | WSH 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 63.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 4.14th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +1.25th of 32 |
| 17th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 52.2%10th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 90.0%16th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–9 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.