Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:25Alex Ovechkin Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (15), Martin Fehervary (2)2–3
- P215:34Steven Stamkos Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Carrier (4), Ryan O'Reilly (7)2–2
- P215:03Aliaksei Protas Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (8), Dylan Strome (14)1–2
- P14:26Connor McMichael Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (1), Pierre-Luc Dubois (6)1–1
- P13:12Juuso Parssinen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Luke Evangelista (5), Philip Tomasino (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:12Juuso Parssinen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Luke Evangelista (5), Philip Tomasino (1)NSH 1 – 0 WSH · NSH 48% → 63% +15NSH 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P14:26Connor McMichael Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (1), Pierre-Luc Dubois (6)NSH 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 37% → 52% +15WSH 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P215:03Aliaksei Protas Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (8), Dylan Strome (14)NSH 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 51% → 73% +21WSH 51% → 73%+21 pts
- P215:34Steven Stamkos Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Carrier (4), Ryan O'Reilly (7)NSH 2 – 2 WSH · NSH 27% → 49% +21NSH 27% → 49%+21 pts
- P310:25Alex Ovechkin Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (15), Martin Fehervary (2)NSH 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 51% → 83% +32WSH 51% → 83%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 52%
- ML NSH +100 / WSH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- NSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +42 Elo | WSH 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 4.23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +1.25th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 52.3%10th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 6–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–8 | 8–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.