Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Brandon DuhaimeGoals1
- Nic DowdAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Hurricanes- Dmitry OrlovGoals2
- Jalen ChatfieldAssists1
- Dmitry OrlovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:51Andrei Svechnikov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P25:26Dmitry Orlov Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (12), Jalen Chatfield (1)2–3
- P22:29Martin Necas Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Eric Robinson (4), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (7)2–2
- P119:49Brandon Duhaime Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (2)2–1
- P119:16Alex Ovechkin Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (7), Dylan Strome (13)1–1
- P114:01Dmitry Orlov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:01Dmitry Orlov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (11)WSH 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 68% → 81% +13CAR 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P119:16Alex Ovechkin Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (7), Dylan Strome (13)WSH 1 – 1 CAR · WSH 19% → 33% +14WSH 19% → 33%+14 pts
- P119:49Brandon Duhaime Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (2)WSH 2 – 1 CAR · WSH 33% → 50% +17WSH 33% → 50%+17 pts
- P22:29Martin Necas Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Eric Robinson (4), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (7)WSH 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 49% → 66% +18CAR 49% → 66%+18 pts
- P25:26Dmitry Orlov Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (12), Jalen Chatfield (1)WSH 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 66% → 81% +15CAR 66% → 81%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 70%
- ML WSH +225 / CAR -275
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 67.2%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -238
- WSH +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.6 – 3.9 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −2 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +125 Elo | CAR 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 71.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.4 | Goals scored | 3.96th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.32nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.5 | Margin | +1.63rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.8% | Shot share | 58.6%1st of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 91.4%5th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–2 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.