Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Hampus LindholmGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals2
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:13Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (10)2–8
- P37:36Sean Walker Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none2–7
- P29:32Jack Roslovic Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (3)2–6
- P28:51Andrei Svechnikov Goal (4) Poke, assists: Seth Jarvis (5), Martin Necas (9)2–5
- P23:38Hampus Lindholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (4), David Pastrnak (4)2–4
- P118:06Martin Necas Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (4), Shayne Gostisbehere (5)1–4
- P117:52Jackson Blake Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (3), William Carrier (2)1–3
- P117:14Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (4), Martin Necas (8)1–2
- P113:11Brad Marchand Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (3), Elias Lindholm (4)1–1
- P16:28Jack Roslovic Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (6), Andrei Svechnikov (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:28Jack Roslovic Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (6), Andrei Svechnikov (6)BOS 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 62% → 75% +14CAR 62% → 75%+14 pts
- P113:11Brad Marchand Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (3), Elias Lindholm (4)BOS 1 – 1 CAR · BOS 24% → 39% +15BOS 24% → 39%+15 pts
- P117:14Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (4), Martin Necas (8)BOS 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 60% → 76% +15CAR 60% → 76%+15 pts
- P117:52Jackson Blake Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (3), William Carrier (2)BOS 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 76% → 87% +11CAR 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P118:06Martin Necas Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (4), Shayne Gostisbehere (5)BOS 1 – 4 CAR · CAR 87% → 94% +7CAR 87% → 94%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 62%
- ML BOS +155 / CAR -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 60.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -166
- BOS +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.4 – 3.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −3 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +77 Elo | CAR 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.43rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.7 | Margin | +1.08th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.7% | Shot share | 57.2%1st of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 91.7%5th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–7 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–2 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.