Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Blake LizotteGoals1
- Blake LizottePoints1
Hurricanes- Jack RoslovicGoals2
- Jalen ChatfieldAssists3
- Jack RoslovicPoints3
Scoring summary
- P35:08Blake Lizotte Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none1–5
- P32:07Eric Robinson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (14), Jalen Chatfield (4)0–5
- P213:52Jaccob Slavin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (9), Jack Roslovic (1)0–4
- P29:27Jack Roslovic Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (8), Jalen Chatfield (3)0–3
- P18:47Jack Roslovic Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (8), Dmitry Orlov (5)0–2
- P10:52Jordan Martinook Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (1), Jalen Chatfield (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:52Jordan Martinook Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (1), Jalen Chatfield (2)PIT 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 70% → 81% +11CAR 70% → 81%+11 pts
- P18:47Jack Roslovic Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (8), Dmitry Orlov (5)PIT 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 81% → 90% +9CAR 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P29:27Jack Roslovic Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (8), Jalen Chatfield (3)PIT 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 92% → 97% +5CAR 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P213:52Jaccob Slavin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (9), Jack Roslovic (1)PIT 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 98% → >99% +2CAR 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P32:07Eric Robinson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (14), Jalen Chatfield (4)PIT 0 – 5 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 70%
- ML PIT +220 / CAR -270
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 66.1%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -234
- PIT +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.7 – 3.8 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −3 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +116 Elo | CAR 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 68.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 4.13rd of 32 |
| 30th of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.9 | Margin | +1.63rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 60.3%1st of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%13th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 25th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–8 | 8–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–3 CAR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.