Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists2
- Owen TippettPoints2
Hurricanes- Jordan MartinookGoals1
- Brent BurnsAssists2
- Brent BurnsPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:58Seth Jarvis Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none4–6
- P319:29Martin Necas Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: none4–5
- P39:17Travis Konecny Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Sean Couturier (5)4–4
- P31:47Jack Roslovic Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (7), Sebastian Aho (7)3–4
- P31:18Morgan Frost Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Travis Sanheim (3), Travis Konecny (7)3–3
- P213:30Owen Tippett Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (6), Sean Couturier (4)2–3
- P29:50Jordan Martinook Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jaccob Slavin (4), Brent Burns (5)1–3
- P28:56Eric Robinson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (13), Brent Burns (4)1–2
- P114:25Jackson Blake Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (3), Dmitry Orlov (4)1–1
- P17:54Travis Konecny Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (6), Matvei Michkov (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:56Eric Robinson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (13), Brent Burns (4)PHI 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 67% → 83% +16CAR 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P31:18Morgan Frost Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Travis Sanheim (3), Travis Konecny (7)PHI 3 – 3 CAR · PHI 16% → 37% +21PHI 16% → 37%+21 pts
- P31:47Jack Roslovic Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (7), Sebastian Aho (7)PHI 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 63% → 84% +21CAR 63% → 84%+21 pts
- P39:17Travis Konecny Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Sean Couturier (5)PHI 4 – 4 CAR · PHI 13% → 40% +27PHI 13% → 40%+27 pts
- P319:29Martin Necas Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: nonePHI 4 – 5 CAR · CAR 52% → >99% +48CAR 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 72%
- ML PHI +250 / CAR -300
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 69.2%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -263
- PHI +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.6 – 3.9 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +140 Elo | CAR 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 69.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.95th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.32nd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +1.63rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.2% | Shot share | 59.6%1st of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 91.3%6th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–8 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–3 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.