Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Matthew PoitrasGoals1
- Hampus LindholmAssists1
- Matthew PoitrasPoints1
FlyersScoring summary
- P316:21Brad Marchand Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (5)3–0
- P211:23Justin Brazeau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (6), Elias Lindholm (5)2–0
- P113:28Matthew Poitras Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (3), Morgan Geekie (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:28Matthew Poitras Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (3), Morgan Geekie (2)BOS 1 – 0 PHI · BOS 52% → 68% +16BOS 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P211:23Justin Brazeau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (6), Elias Lindholm (5)BOS 2 – 0 PHI · BOS 71% → 86% +15BOS 71% → 86%+15 pts
- P316:21Brad Marchand Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (5)BOS 3 – 0 PHI · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -120 / PHI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 47.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.3 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −20 | +4 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.50 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +15 Elo | PHI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 28th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.727th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.927th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 49.0%19th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 87.2%31st of 32 |
| 16th of 294–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 29 |
| 29th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–8 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.