Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Evgenii DadonovAssists1
- Evgenii DadonovPoints1
Jets- Vladislav NamestnikovGoals1
- Cole PerfettiAssists2
- Vladislav NamestnikovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:38Roope Hintz Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (6), Evgenii Dadonov (3)1–4
- P27:14Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (12), Gabriel Vilardi (7)0–4
- P23:34Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (4) Wrap-around, assists: Cole Perfetti (9), Neal Pionk (11)0–3
- P110:21Rasmus Kupari Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (4)0–2
- P17:28Alex Iafallo Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (7), Cole Perfetti (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:28Alex Iafallo Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (7), Cole Perfetti (8)DAL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 51% → 66% +15WPG 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P110:21Rasmus Kupari Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (4)DAL 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 66% → 80% +13WPG 66% → 80%+13 pts
- P23:34Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (4) Wrap-around, assists: Cole Perfetti (9), Neal Pionk (11)DAL 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 83% → 92% +9WPG 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P27:14Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (12), Gabriel Vilardi (7)DAL 0 – 4 WPG · WPG 93% → 98% +4WPG 93% → 98%+4 pts
- P318:38Roope Hintz Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (6), Evgenii Dadonov (3)DAL 1 – 4 WPG · DAL 0% → <1% +0DAL 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 51%
- ML DAL -105 / WPG -115
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- WPG: Elo 57.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -104
- DAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.7 – 2.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +7 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +52 Elo | WPG 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 4.51st of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.11st of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +2.41st of 32 |
| 16th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 52.5%7th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 92.8%1st of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 9th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–1 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.