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Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Altitude Sports

Away

Avalanche

6-8-0

0–1

at

Home

Jets

13-1-0

COL 44%WPG 56%

You didn't pick this one.

Canada Life Centre · ESPN+, Altitude Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors WPG.

WPG75%50%75%COLStartP1P2Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Avalanche

    Scoring summary

    • P11:06Gabriel Vilardi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (11)0–1

    Turning points

    The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P11:06Gabriel Vilardi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (11)COL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 56% → 70% +14

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Jets 56%

    LeanHit
    COL 44%WPG 56%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

    Market
    WPG 56%
    ML COL +120 / WPG -140
    Pre-line forecast
    WPG 57%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    WPG 64%
    Ratings vs. market
    +7.9 pts
    WPG: Elo 64.1%, market 56.2%
    Fair odds
    WPG -128
    COL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    COL 3.1 – 3.4 WPG
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorCOLWPGWhy
    Team rating15201563Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies−18+5COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsWPG +101 EloWPG 64.1%
    Market-implied ratingsWPG 55.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastWPG 57.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastWPG 56.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets compared, with each team's league rank
    COLStatWPG
    8th of 323.5Goals scored4.81st of 32
    32nd of 324.2Goals allowed2.31st of 32
    24th of 32−0.6Margin+2.51st of 32
    3rd of 3255.1%Shot share53.1%6th of 32
    32nd of 3285.9%Save percentage92.1%2nd of 32
    8th of 326–4Last 109–11st of 32
    8th of 323–2Road vs home6–14th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    AvalancheJets
    14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonCOLWPG
    Puck line3–108–5
    Last 103–77–3
    Favorite3–77–4
    Underdog0–31–1
    Overs–unders10–38–5
    Overs–unders, last 107–38–2

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    COL 4–4 WPG in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.