Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Jets- Vladislav NamestnikovGoals1
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists1
- Vladislav NamestnikovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:23Cole Perfetti Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (13)4–7
- P317:15Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (9), Vladislav Namestnikov (6)4–6
- P37:38Dylan Samberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (10), Dylan DeMelo (2)4–5
- P36:51Nikita Kucherov Goal (10) Poke, assists: none4–4
- P34:03Alex Iafallo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (5), Cole Perfetti (7)3–4
- P28:39Mitchell Chaffee Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (8), Nick Paul (7)3–3
- P27:36Mark Scheifele Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (6)2–3
- P25:49Logan Stanley Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (9)2–2
- P112:23Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (12)2–1
- P18:02Brayden Point Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (10), Victor Hedman (10)2–0
- P16:49Brandon Hagel Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:49Logan Stanley Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (9)TB 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 37% → 56% +19WPG 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P28:39Mitchell Chaffee Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (8), Nick Paul (7)TB 3 – 3 WPG · TB 26% → 44% +18TB 26% → 44%+18 pts
- P34:03Alex Iafallo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (5), Cole Perfetti (7)TB 3 – 4 WPG · WPG 54% → 79% +25WPG 54% → 79%+25 pts
- P36:51Nikita Kucherov Goal (10) Poke, assists: noneTB 4 – 4 WPG · TB 19% → 46% +27TB 19% → 46%+27 pts
- P37:38Dylan Samberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (10), Dylan DeMelo (2)TB 4 – 5 WPG · WPG 54% → 81% +28WPG 54% → 81%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 58%
- ML TB +130 / WPG -150
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 60.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -138
- TB +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.5 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +4 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +74 Elo | WPG 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 4.71st of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.43rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +2.41st of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 52.8%10th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 92.1%3rd of 32 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 31 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–6 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 0–2 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.