Seattle Kraken at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints2
Avalanche- Chris WagnerGoals1
- Josh MansonAssists1
- Chris WagnerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:58Nikolai Kovalenko Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (9), Josh Manson (4)3–6
- P317:55Mikko Rantanen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (1), Nathan MacKinnon (19)3–5
- P317:31Matty Beniers Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Montour (6), Jared McCann (10)3–4
- P29:11Mikko Rantanen Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (18), Nathan MacKinnon (18)2–4
- P26:44Artturi Lehkonen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (17), Cale Makar (17)2–3
- P20:23Jared McCann Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (8)2–2
- P114:12Ivan Ivan Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (4), Nathan MacKinnon (16)1–2
- P112:58Jaden Schwartz Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Matty Beniers (6), Ryker Evans (5)1–1
- P12:28Chris Wagner Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (15), Samuel Girard (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:28Chris Wagner Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (15), Samuel Girard (6)SEA 0 – 1 COL · COL 62% → 75% +13COL 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P112:58Jaden Schwartz Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Matty Beniers (6), Ryker Evans (5)SEA 1 – 1 COL · SEA 24% → 39% +15SEA 24% → 39%+15 pts
- P114:12Ivan Ivan Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (4), Nathan MacKinnon (16)SEA 1 – 2 COL · COL 61% → 76% +15COL 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P20:23Jared McCann Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (8)SEA 2 – 2 COL · SEA 24% → 40% +16SEA 24% → 40%+16 pts
- P26:44Artturi Lehkonen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (17), Cale Makar (17)SEA 2 – 3 COL · COL 59% → 77% +17COL 59% → 77%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 62%
- ML SEA +155 / COL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- COL: Elo 64.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -166
- SEA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +14 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +106 Elo | COL 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 63.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 4.332nd of 32 |
| 15th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.927th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 86.0%32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 16th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 2–529th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–7 | 2–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–3 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.